Horse Racing Naps Table — How to Read and Use Newspaper Tipster Data

The Naps Table is the public scorecard of British racing journalism. Published daily in the Racing Post and updated on several other platforms, it tracks the performance of newspaper tipsters’ NAP selections — their strongest pick of the day — across an entire season, measured at starting price and level stakes. It is, in effect, a rolling accountability mechanism: a record that no tipster can edit, spin or selectively present. The numbers speak, and the tipsters’ reputations follow.

For punters, the Naps Table offers something rare in racing: objective, independently recorded performance data on the people whose advice millions of people follow. According to BookiesEnemyNo1, realistic ROI benchmarks for tipsters range from 2–5% for a decent long-term record to 5–10% for a genuinely strong edge. The Naps Table lets you measure any newspaper tipster against those benchmarks and decide, with data rather than loyalty, whether their selections are worth following.

But the table is more useful than it first appears. Beyond the headline profit-and-loss column, it contains patterns that can sharpen your own betting — if you know how to read the data, understand its limitations and apply it selectively rather than blindly.

What a Naps Table Records and Why It Exists

The Naps Table records the NAP selection from every participating newspaper tipster — typically between fifteen and twenty columnists from publications ranging from the Racing Post itself to the Sun, the Daily Mail, the Guardian, the Daily Telegraph and the Mirror. Each tipster submits one NAP per racing day, and the table logs the result: winner, loser, non-runner.

Results are calculated at starting price (SP) and level stakes, meaning every NAP is treated as a £1 win bet at the official SP regardless of what odds the tipster advised in their column. This standardisation is crucial. It strips away the advantage of early-morning prices (which may have been available when the column was written but not when most readers placed their bets) and creates a level playing field. A tipster whose NAPs are priced at 3/1 in the morning but drift to 5/1 by the off is credited with the 5/1 SP, not the 3/1 they originally advised.

The tradition dates back decades. Newspaper racing coverage has always included tipsters’ selections, and the competitive element — who is top of the table? — adds a layer of engagement for readers that pure race analysis does not provide. For the newspapers themselves, the Naps Table is a circulation tool: readers follow their preferred tipster’s daily NAP and track the running total with the same fidelity that football fans track a league table.

What makes the Naps Table genuinely valuable is its independence. No tipster controls what is recorded. The Racing Post’s team logs every result from the published selections, and the cumulative profit-or-loss figure is beyond dispute. In an industry where claimed tipster records are routinely inflated, selectively reported or outright fabricated, the Naps Table stands as one of the few fully transparent performance datasets available.

Columns Explained — P&L, Strike Rate and Running Total

The standard Naps Table displays several columns, each conveying different information about a tipster’s performance.

The P&L column — profit and loss — is the headline figure. It shows the cumulative profit or loss from backing every NAP at level stakes to SP. A positive figure means the tipster’s NAPs have produced a net profit over the season. A negative figure means they have not. Simple as that sounds, interpreting it requires context. A tipster showing +20 points profit after 200 NAPs has an ROI of 10% — a strong record. A tipster showing +20 points after 50 NAPs has an ROI of 40%, which sounds spectacular but may simply reflect a short run of good luck on a small sample.

Strike rate is the percentage of NAPs that won. A 30% strike rate means roughly three winners from every ten selections. Data from On Course Profits shows that market favourites win approximately 34.4% of races over a five-year sample. A Naps Table tipster with a strike rate materially above 34% is selecting NAPs that win more often than the average favourite — a meaningful achievement. A tipster with a strike rate well below 30% may still be profitable if their average winning odds are high enough, but they are asking you to endure longer losing runs in exchange for bigger individual payouts.

The running total chart — sometimes displayed graphically — shows how the P&L has moved over time. A steady upward line suggests consistent performance. A line that spikes dramatically and then flatlines may indicate that most of the profit came from one or two big-priced winners, with little sustained edge otherwise. The shape of the curve tells you as much about the quality of the record as the final number does.

Some tables also show the average odds of NAP winners, the longest losing streak, and the number of selections. These secondary columns are useful for assessing whether a tipster’s record is built on a sustainable pattern or on a handful of fortunate results.

Do Past Naps Results Predict Future Winners?

The critical question for any punter using the Naps Table is whether a tipster’s past performance predicts future results — and the honest answer is: partially, with significant caveats.

Regression to the mean is the most important caveat. A tipster who tops the table in October after a brilliant run of early-season winners is statistically likely to drift back towards average performance as the sample grows. Short-term hot streaks are common in any probabilistic domain, and racing is no exception. A tipster’s October P&L is not a reliable predictor of their March P&L, because the sample is too small for skill and luck to be cleanly separated.

Sample size governs everything. A tipster with a profitable record over 500 NAPs is a far more reliable signal than one with the same percentage profit over 50. The variance in racing outcomes means that a run of 50 selections can produce almost any result — a terrible tipster can look brilliant, and a skilled one can look hopeless. Only over hundreds of selections does the underlying skill (or lack of it) start to emerge from the noise. A reasonable minimum sample before drawing conclusions is 200 selections, and even then, the confidence interval is wider than most punters appreciate.

Seasonal factors add further complexity. A tipster who excels during the Jumps season may struggle on the Flat, or vice versa. Their record at big festivals may be stronger than their everyday-racing record. The Naps Table’s cumulative figure blends all conditions together, which can mask specialisation. A tipster whose overall P&L is modest might show exceptional returns during specific months — and if you can identify that pattern, you have a more useful signal than the headline number provides.

Using the Naps Table as a Research Tool

The smartest use of the Naps Table is not blind following — it is cross-referencing. When a tipster whose long-term record you respect selects a NAP that aligns with your own form reading, you have a stronger case for backing the horse. Two independent analyses arriving at the same conclusion is more meaningful than either analysis alone.

Filtering by conditions adds another layer. If a specific tipster has a strong record on soft ground — a pattern you can identify by checking their NAP results against going data — their selections on soft days carry more weight than their selections on quick ground. The Naps Table does not publish this breakdown directly, but cross-referencing the daily NAPs with going reports over a few weeks reveals whether a tipster has a surface bias worth exploiting.

Consensus NAPs — where multiple tipsters select the same horse — are worth monitoring with caution. A horse chosen as NAP by five or six tipsters simultaneously will almost certainly be heavily backed, which shortens the price and may erode the value. In these cases, the consensus tells you the horse is well-fancied but does not tell you whether the shortened price still represents fair value. Sometimes the crowd is right and the price is still reasonable; sometimes the crowd pushes the price below its true probability, creating value elsewhere in the race.

Ultimately, the Naps Table is a data source, not a decision-maker. It provides objective, independently recorded performance data on people whose opinions millions of punters follow. That data has real value — but only if you use it as one input among several rather than as a substitute for your own analysis. The table holds everyone accountable, including you: track your own results with the same rigour it applies to its tipsters, and your betting will improve as a consequence.